What to watch for in last weeks of US election campaign
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After months of political campaigning, the US is now into the final countdown to the 2024 election. For observers of this election — which has major implications for American and global politics — there are a few key events and factors to watch over the next few weeks.
Election day is Nov. 5, but early voting is already starting in some states. The presidency, the House of Representatives and about a third of Senate seats will all be contested. In many states, voters will also make choices about state- and local-level positions.
For the presidential race, most of the traditionally important events are already over. The Republican and Democratic parties have held their primary elections and caucuses to choose their candidates. The Republican convention, where the candidate is officially chosen, took place in July and the Democratic convention in August.
Another traditionally important event in presidential campaigns is a debate between candidates — or, typically, several debates. There is a long history of debates between US presidential candidates, but the current norms around the debates emerged with the age of television. This year saw some changes in recent norms, as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump bypassed the Commission on Presidential Debates and negotiated their own terms for a debate on CNN.
That June 27 debate fundamentally changed the 2024 election. Biden’s performance was widely seen as poor, amplifying concerns about his age and mental acuity. As Trump gained a clear lead in polls after the debate, concerned Democrats began to demand a change. Eventually, Biden ended his candidacy and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. The Democratic Party rapidly united behind her, making her the official candidate at the convention in August.
While Americans might not have another opportunity to see Harris and Trump go head-to-head, both candidates will hold many rallies
Kerry Boyd Anderson
On Sept. 10, Trump and Harris participated in a televised debate on ABC News. Afterward, Trump said he would not debate Harris again, though he might change his mind, and Harris has expressed interest in another debate. Meanwhile, vice presidential candidates J.D. Vance (Republican) and Tim Walz (Democratic) are scheduled to debate on Oct. 1 on CBS News.
While Americans might not have another opportunity to see Harris and Trump go head-to-head, both candidates will hold many campaign rallies and events, especially in the battleground states that will determine who wins. Harris’ campaign is focusing on maintaining the current enthusiasm within much of the Democratic Party while actively courting swing voters. Trump’s campaign seeks to maintain energy among his supporters while focusing substantial resources on encouraging potential voters who are often disconnected from politics to show up at the polls for Trump. Both candidates seem to prefer local and niche media to traditional national media, so there might not be many broadly televised interviews before the election.
There are still several weeks left before the election concludes, leaving room for unexpected events. There is a tradition in US politics of speculating about an “October surprise” — a last-minute news event that is unexpected or planned by an opponent that could change the election’s outcome. Furthermore, this race has already seen two attempted assassinations of the Republican candidate and a late switch in the Democratic candidate. More surprises could be in store.
Throughout the rest of September and October, pollsters will frequently release new data. This close to the election, polling can provide useful insights. However, observers should focus on polling in the battleground states that will determine the election’s outcome, rather than on national polling. Poll results in Pennsylvania, for example, are far more relevant than nationwide surveys. Also, polling can help to explain that a race is very tight but, in a close race, polling may not be useful for predicting the winner; for example, some polling in several battleground states is so close that the results fall within the survey’s margin of error.
Some previous elections took days or even weeks for the final vote tallies to be completed and for courts to settle disputes
Kerry Boyd Anderson
As Americans and many people around the world anxiously wait to see who wins, the reality is that the result might be unclear as Nov. 6 dawns. Some previous elections took days or even weeks for the final vote tallies to be completed and for courts to settle disputes. Trump, who argues that he won the 2020 election, has invested significant campaign resources in preparing to challenge votes that favor Harris.
Furthermore, this year’s election is the first presidential election to take place in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol as members of Congress voted to certify the presidential election results. In the nearly four years since that attack, narratives about its nature and why it happened have diverged along partisan lines, so many Americans have very different perspectives on the event. The Jan. 6 attack blew an enormous hole in Americans’ confidence that their democracy automatically includes a peaceful transfer of power, and the breaking of that norm opens the door to more potential violence and distrust after the upcoming election.
Trump’s insistence that he won the last election also means that many of his supporters would not accept a Harris victory. Also, when Trump won in 2016, his opponents accepted his win but, in a very different political environment in 2024, they might be less willing to do so if the outcome is close and contested. Observers of US politics are naturally focused on the weeks leading up to Nov. 5, but the weeks immediately following the election will also be crucial to the future of US politics and policy.
- Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. X: @KBAresearch
